Risk prediction tool for grade re-classification in men with favourable-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance
How to Cite
Mamawala, M. M., Rao, K., Landis, P., Epstein, J. I., Trock, B. J., Tosoian, J. J., Pienta, K. J. and Carter, H. B. (2017), Risk prediction tool for grade re-classification in men with favourable-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance. BJU International, 120: 25–31. doi: 10.1111/bju.13608
To create a nomogram for men on active surveillance (AS) for prediction of grade re-classification (GR) above Gleason score 6 (Grade group >2) at surveillance biopsy.
Patients and Methods
Of 1 374 men, 254 (18.50%) were re-classified to Gleason ≥7 on surveillance prostate biopsy. Variables predictive of GR were earlier year of diagnosis [≤2004 vs ≥2005; odds ratio (OR) 2.16, P < 0.001], older age (OR 1.05, P < 0.001), higher prostate-specific antigen density [OR 1.19 (per 0.1 unit increase), P = 0.04], bilateral disease (OR 2.86, P < 0.001), risk strata (low-risk vs very-low-risk, OR 1.79, P < 0.001), and total number of biopsies without GR (OR 0.68, P < 0.001). On internal validation, a nomogram created using the multivariable model had an area under the curve of 0.757 (95% confidence interval 0.730–0.797) for predicting GR at the time of next surveillance biopsy.
The nomogram described is currently being used at each return visit to assess the need for a surveillance biopsy, and could increase retention in AS.