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Editorial: Can machine‐learning algorithms replace conventional statistics?

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Wong et al. [1] evaluate 19 clinical variables (training data) and three supervised machine‐learning algorithms to predict early biochemical recurrence after robot‐assisted prostatectomy. They further compare the areas under the curve (AUCs) resulting from these algorithms with the AUC of a conventional Cox regression model and conclude that the machine‐learning algorithms can produce accurate disease prognosis, perhaps better than a traditional Cox regression model. As the authors state, predictive models have the potential to better individualize care to patients at highest risk of prostate cancer recurrence and progression.

The authors should be commended for their adoption of machine‐learning algorithms to better interpret the vast volumes of clinical data and assess prognosis after robot‐assisted prostatectomy. This should represent another step forward for the management of prostate cancer, where tailored treatment is now largely based on the clinical risk stratification of the disease [2]. Incidentally, we are also in an era where we are seeing aspects of artificial intelligence (machine learning being a subset of it) vastly transform how we view and process data in everyday life. This has been true in medicine as well, particularly for prostate cancer [3].

While our own research group has also evaluated machine‐learning algorithms to process surgeon performance metrics and predict clinical outcomes after robot‐assisted prostatectomy [4], I want to express a word of caution. Utilization of machine learning does not in itself imply automatic superiority over conventional statistics [5] despite literature that has demonstrated so [3]. The success of predictive models in machine learning still relies on the quality of data introduced and careful execution of the analysis. In our experience, it works best when highly experienced clinicians and data scientists are working hand in hand.

Furthermore, I would argue that the results of this present study do not necessarily show that machine learning is superior to conventional statistics, but rather it highlights an inherent advantage of machine learning. While traditional analyses require the a priori selection of a model based on the available data, machine learning has more flexibility for model fitting [6]. Additionally, inclusion of variables in traditional analyses is constrained by the sample size. In contrast, by design, machine learning models thrive on their ability to consider many variables concurrently, and as such, have the potential to detect underlying patterns that may otherwise be undetectable when data are examined effectively in individual silos.

We look forward to the external validation of the methodology described in the present article. Big and diverse data are critical requirements of machine learning. A multi‐institutional, multi‐surgeon cohort is necessary to confirm the findings in this report. A further step from there is the adoption of such prediction models into clinical use. The ultimate question is how improved prognostic data may influence surgeon and patient decisions.

Conflict of Interest

Dr Hung reports personal fees from Ethicon, Inc, outside the submitted work.

References

  1. Wong NC, Lam C, Patterson L, Shayegan B. Use of machine learning to predict early biochemical recurrence following robotic prostatectomy. BJU Int 2019; 123: 51–7
  2. D’Amico AV, Whittington R, Malkowicz SB et al. Biochemical outcome after radical prostatectomy, external beam radiation therapy or interstitial radiation therapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. JAMA 1998; 280: 969–74
  4. Hung AJ, Chen J, Che Z et al. Utilizing machine learning and automated performance metrics to evaluate robot‐assisted radical prostatectomy performance and predict outcomes. J Endourol 2018; 32: 438–445
  5. Kattan MW. Comparison of Cox regression with other methods for determining prediction models and nomograms. J Urol 2003; 170 (6 Pt 2): S6–9
  6. Hung AJ, Chen J, Gill IS. Automated performance metrics and machine learning algorithms to measure surgeon performance and anticipate clinical outcomes in robotic surgery. JAMA Surg 2018; 153: 770–1

Editorial: Predicting progression in T1 non‐muscle‐invasive bladder cancer: back to histology

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Stage pT1 bladder carcinomas (BCs) represent a difficult clinical scenario as they have different outcomes and are associated with a high risk of progression to muscle‐invasive tumours. The optimal therapeutic approach for individual patients in this setting is still unclear: conservative treatment with BCG instillation and intravesical chemotherapy may lead to disease progression and death, while radical cystectomy may represent a mutilating overtreatment for patients with tumours that may have low potential for progression.

The ability to discriminate those patients who will probably progress to carcinoma invading bladder muscle is therefore crucial. Among prognostic factors associated with progression to muscle invasion, tumour grade is one of the most important. In their important paper, van de Putte et al. [1] aimed to compare the prognostic value of the WHO 1973 and 2004 grading systems, the latter being recommended by the AUA guidelines as the most widely accepted in the USA [2], although it has not been proven superior to the other [3].

The authors collected transurethral resections from 601 primary T1 BCs, initially managed conservatively (BCG), from four institutions, and three pathologists reviewed the slides. Importantly, a second transurethral resection was performed if the muscularis propria was absent and/or the initial resection was incomplete. Grade was assigned according to the WHO 1973 (G1–3) and WHO 2004 (low grade [LG] and high grade [HG]) systems. None of the cases was classified as G1. The prognostic value of both grading systems for progression‐free and cancer‐specific survival was then assessed. Notably, the author found WHO1973 G3 to be significantly negatively associated with progression‐free survival and cancer‐specific survival on multivariable analysis, while the WHO 2004 grading system was not. Importantly, intra‐observer variability was assessed in 66 cases and was found to be almost perfect for the WHO 1973 and moderate to substantial for the WHO 2004 system, while inter‐observer variability ranged from moderate to substantial for both systems. One of the reasons for the lack of prognostic potential of the WHO 2004 system, as underscored by the authors, is the fact that the morphological criteria defined in the WHO 2004 system cause an important shift of many cases from the G2 to HG category, rendering it an almost one‐tier system with consequently very few LG tumours. Other studies have assessed the prognostic value of the WHO 1973 and WHO 2004 systems [3] but so far no clear superiority emerged for one system over the other, probably because of relatively low sample sizes.

Other clinical prognostic factors associated with progression to muscle‐invasive tumours include tumour dimension, the presence of multiple lesions, the presence of carcinoma in situ, lymphovascular invasion and level of lamina propria invasion. Regarding the latter prognostic factor, different studies have defined T1 sub‐staging according to invasion above (T1a), within (T1b) or beyond (T1c) the muscularis mucosae and vascular plexus; however, this approach has been found not to be applicable in >40% of cases because of difficulties in identifying the vascular plexus or lack of orientation of the specimens. A more friendly and reproducible method has been proposed by some of the authors of the study, consisting of a categorization of T1 BCs into microinvasive (T1m) and extensively invasive (T1e) tumours, which has been demonstrated to be applicable in 100% of cases and more reproducible [4]. Further study incorporating T1 sub‐staging together with grade may prove very useful.

Different studies have been performed to identify prognostic markers at the molecular level; however, despite huge efforts, no molecular biomarker with prognostic potential is currently suitable for clinical application [5]. Moreover, in six studies that investigated T1 sub‐stage and molecular markers in the same series, T1 sub‐stage showed the highest prognostic value [4]. More recently, subtyping BC into basal‐like and genomically unstable or squamous cell carcinoma‐like tumours has emerged as a promising tool for dividing T1 BCs into low‐ and high‐risk categories [6]; however, such an approach must be combined with the prognostic value of the classic histological variables discussed so far before eventually being integrated into prognostic tools.

In this regard, van de Putte et al. [1] have shown that tumour grade still represents a powerful marker in T1 BC and that the WHO 2004 grading system cannot replace the WHO 1973 system as a prognosticator of T1 BC; therefore, as recommended by the European Association of Urology guidelines, the WHO 1973 grading system categories should always be present in the pathology reports.

 

References

  1. van de Putte EEF, Bosschieter J, van der Kwast TH et al. The World Health Organization 1973 classification system for grade is an important prognosticator in T1 non‐muscle‐invasive bladder cancer. BJU Int 2018; 122: 978–85
  2. Chang SS, Boorjian SA, Chou R et al. Diagnosis and treatment of non‐muscle invasive bladder cancer: AUA/SUO guideline. J Urol 2016; 196: 1021–93
  3. Babjuk M, Bohle A, Burger M et al. EAU guidelines on non‐muscle‐invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder: update 2016. Eur Urol 2017; 71: 447–614
  4. van Rhijn BW, Liu L, Vis AN et al. Prognostic value of molecular markers, sub‐stage and European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer risk scores in primary T1 bladder cancer. BJU Int 2012; 110: 1169–76
  5. Munari E, Chaux A, Maldonado L et al. Cyclin A1 expression predicts progression in pT1 urothelial carcinoma of bladder: a tissue microarray study of 149 patients treated by transurethral resection. Histopathology 2015; 66: 262–9
  6. Patschan O, Sjodahl G, Chebil G et al. A molecular pathologic framework for risk stratification of stage T1 urothelial carcinoma. Eur Urol 2015; 68: 824–32

 

Guideline of guidelines: primary monotherapies for localised or locally advanced prostate cancer

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Abstract:

Decisions regarding the primary treatment of prostate cancer depend on several patient‐ and disease‐specific factors. Several international guidelines regarding the primary treatment of prostate cancer exist; however, they have not been formally compared. As guidelines often contradict each other, we aimed to systematically compare recommendations regarding the different primary treatment modalities of prostate cancer between guidelines. We searched Medline, the National Guidelines Clearinghouse, the library of the Guidelines International Network, and the websites of major urological associations for prostate cancer treatment guidelines. In total, 14 guidelines from 12 organisations were included in the present article. One of the main discrepancies concerned the definition of ‘localised’ prostate cancer. Localised prostate cancer was defined as cT1–cT3 in most guidelines; however, this disease stage was defined in other guidelines as cT1–cT2, or as any T‐stage as long as there is no lymph node involvement (N0) or metastases (M0). In addition, the risk stratification of localised cancer differed considerably between guidelines. Recommendations regarding radical prostatectomy and hormonal therapy were largely consistent between the guidelines. However, recommendations regarding active surveillance, brachytherapy, and external beam radiotherapy varied, mainly as a result of the inconsistencies in the risk stratification. The differences in year of publication and the methodology (i.e. consensus‐based or evidence‐based) for developing the guidelines might partly explain the differences in recommendations. It can be assumed that the observed variation in international clinical practice regarding the primary treatment of prostate cancer might be partly due to the inconsistent recommendations in different guidelines.

Michelle Lancee, Kari A.O. Tikkinen, Theo M. de Reijke, Vesa V. Kataja, Katja K.H. Aben and Robin W.M. Vernooij

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Article of the Week: NICE Advice – Prolaris Gene Expression Assay

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Every Week, the Editor-in-Chief selects an Article of the Week from the current issue of BJUI. The summary is reproduced below and you can click on the button to read the full article, which is freely available to all readers for at least 30 days from the time of this post.

If you only have time to read one article this week, it should be this one.

NICE Advice – Prolaris gene expression assay for assessing long‐term risk of prostate cancer progression

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Resident’s Podcast: NICE Guidance – ceftolozane & tazobactam for complicated UTIs

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Eleanor Zimmermann is due to start her Urology registrar training in the Southwest this October, and is a BURST Core Surgical Trainee Representative. @BURSTUrology

In this Residents’ Podcast, Eleanor discusses the NICE Guidance on complicated urinary tract infections: ceftolozane/tazobactam

 

BJUI Podcasts now available on iTunes, subscribe here https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/bju-international/id1309570262

 

Video: β3‐adrenoceptor agonists inhibit carbachol‐evoked Ca2+ oscillations in murine detrusor myocytes

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β3‐adrenoceptor agonists inhibit carbachol‐evoked Ca2+ oscillations in murine detrusor myocytes

 

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Abstract

Objective

To test if carbachol (CCh)‐evoked Ca2+ oscillations in freshly isolated murine detrusor myocytes are affected by β3‐adrenoceptor (β‐AR) modulators.

Materials and Methods

Isometric tension recordings were made from strips of murine detrusor, and intracellular Ca2+ measurements were made from isolated detrusor myocytes using confocal microscopy. Transcriptional expression of β‐AR sub‐types in detrusor strips and isolated detrusor myocytes was assessed using reverse transcriptase‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) and real‐time quantitative PCR (qPCR). Immunocytochemistry experiments, using a β3‐AR selective antibody, were performed to confirm that β3‐ARs were present on detrusor myocytes.

Results

The RT‐PCR and qPCR experiments showed that β1‐, β2‐ and β3‐AR were expressed in murine detrusor, but that β3‐ARs were the most abundant sub‐type. The selective β3‐AR agonist BRL37344 reduced the amplitude of CCh‐induced contractions of detrusor smooth muscle. These responses were unaffected by addition of the BK channel blocker iberiotoxin. BRL37344 also reduced the amplitude of CCh‐induced Ca2+ oscillations in freshly isolated murine detrusor myocytes. This effect was mimicked by CL316,243, another β3‐AR agonist, and inhibited by the β3‐AR antagonist L748,337, but not by propranolol, an antagonist of β1‐ and β2‐ARs. BRL37344 did not affect caffeine‐evoked Ca2+ transients or L‐type Ca2+ current in isolated detrusor myocytes.

Conclusion

Inhibition of cholinergic‐mediated contractions of the detrusor by β3‐AR agonists was associated with a reduction in Ca2+ oscillations in detrusor myocytes.

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Video: Multiple Growth Periods of SRMs Predict Unfavourable Pathology

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Multiple growth periods predict unfavourable pathology in patients with small renal masses

 

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Abstract

Objective

To use the number of positive growth periods as a characterization of the growth of small renal masses in order to determine potential predictors of malignancy.

Patients and Methods

Patients who underwent axial imaging at multiple time points prior to surgical resection for a small renal mass were queried. Patients were categorized based on their pathological tumour grade and stage: favourable (benign, chromophobe and low‐grade pT1–2 renal cell carcinoma [RCC]) vs unfavourable (high‐grade of any stage and low‐grade pT3–4 RCC). A positive growth period was counted each time the difference in greatest tumour diameters between two images was positive. The Cochran–Armitage trend test and Somers’ D association were used to determine if the number of positive growth periods was correlated with unfavourable pathology.

Results

Of the 124 patients, 86 (69.4%) had favourable pathology and 38 (30.6%) had unfavourable pathology. Those who had favourable pathology were younger than those who had unfavourable pathology: median (interquartile range [IQR]) 61.0 (52.2–66.0) vs 68.5 (61.5–77.0); P < 0.001. The overall growth rate was higher in the unfavourable group, but was not statistically significant: mean (sd) 0.7 (1.7) vs 1.6 (2.8) cm/year; P = 0.07. There was a significant trend difference in the number of positive growth periods between favourability groups (P = 0.02). An association between increased number of positive growth periods and unfavourable pathology was observed: 0.15 (95% confidence interval 0.02, 0.29). The ratios of favourable to unfavourable pathology were 1.8, 1.0, 0.66, 0.59 and 0 as the number of positive growth periods increased from 0 to 4, respectively.

Conclusion

While overall growth rate was not predictive of pathology favourability, there was a positive association between the number of positive growth periods and unfavourable pathology. The number of positive growth periods may be a potential parameter for malignant potential in patients undergoing active surveillance for small renal masses.

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Video: Centralisation of RC for bladder cancer in England

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Centralisation of radical cystectomies for bladder cancer in England, a decade on from the ‘Improving Outcomes Guidance’: the case for super centralisation

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Abstract

Objective

To analyse the impact of centralisation of radical cystectomy (RC) provision for bladder cancer in England, on postoperative mortality, length of stay (LoS), complications and re-intervention rates, from implementation of centralisation from 2003 until 2014. In 2002, UK policymakers introduced the ‘Improving Outcomes Guidance’ (IOG) for urological cancers after a global cancer surgery commission identified substantial shortcomings in provision of care of RCs. One key recommendation was centralisation of RCs to high-output centres. No study has yet robustly analysed the changes since the introduction of the IOG, to assess a national healthcare system that has mature data on such institutional transformation.

Patients and Methods

RCs performed for bladder cancer in England between 2003/2004 and 2013/2014 were analysed from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data. Outcomes including 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year all-cause postoperative mortality; median LoS; complication and re-intervention rates, were calculated. Multivariable statistical analysis was undertaken to describe the relationship between each surgeon and the providers’ annual case volume and mortality.

Results

In all, 15 292 RCs were identified. The percentage of RCs performed in discordance with the IOG guidelines reduced from 65% to 12.4%, corresponding with an improvement in 30-day mortality from 2.7% to 1.5% (P = 0.024). Procedures adhering to the IOG guidelines had better 30-day mortality (2.1% vs 2.9%; P = 0.003) than those that did not, and better 1-year mortality (21.5% vs 25.6%; P < 0.001), LoS (14 vs 16 days; P < 0.001), and re- intervention rates (30.0% vs 33.6%; P < 0.001). Each single extra surgery per centre reduced the odds of death at 30 days by 1.5% (odds ratio [OR] 0.985, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.977–0.992) and 1% at 1 year (OR 0.990, 95% CI 0.988–0.993), and significantly reduced rates of re-intervention.

Conclusion

Centralisation has been implemented across England since the publication of the IOG guidelines in 2002. The improved outcomes shown, including that a single extra procedure per year per centre can significantly reduce mortality and re-intervention, may serve to offer healthcare planners an evidence base to propose new guidance for further optimisation of surgical provision, and hope for other healthcare systems that such widespread institutional change is achievable and positive.

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Editorial: Examining the role of centralisation of radical cystectomy for bladder cancer

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Despite the high risk of postoperative complications and/or death, radical cystectomy (RC) is currently considered as the standard of care for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) without clinical evidence of metastases at initial diagnosis. As an alternative, trimodality bladder-sparing therapy with a potentially more favourable toxicity profile has been developed over recent decades, but definitive surgery may provide better cancer control outcomes, especially in fit individuals. Consequently, efforts have been made recently to improve RC quality by introducing new concepts in the perioperative management of patients with MIBC. For example, the implementation of robot-assisted techniques and enhanced recovery protocols may help to reduce surgical stress and facilitate discharge after early rehabilitation. Nonetheless, such valuable interventions are more likely to be delivered at expert centres in MIBC management.

Interestingly, given that surgical experience mostly comes from surgical volume, numerous studies suggest that there is an inverse relationship between hospital as well as surgeon volume and morbidities for major surgeries including RC. Specifically, a recent meta-analysis showed that high-volume hospitals (odds ratio [OR] 0.55, 95% CI: 0.44–0.69; P < 0.001) and surgeons (OR 0.58, 95% CI: 0.46–0.73; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with a lower risk of death after RC [1]. As a result, centralisation of RC at high-output centres has been advocated worldwide to optimise perioperative management of patients with MIBC and improve short-term outcomes.

In this issue of the BJUI, Afshar et al. [2] eloquently show that such a healthcare policy can be effective at the population level. The authors impressively collected perioperative information on >15 000 RC patients from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset in England, where the ‘Improving Outcomes Guidance’ (IOG) programme recommends since 2002 that RC should be performed by surgeons operating at least five cases per year at centres carrying out ≥50 procedures per year. Interestingly, they found that the proportion of RC performed in discordance with IOG guidelines decreased from 60.7% in 2003 to 12.4% in 2013. This resulted in a significant improvement in the overall 30-day crude mortality rate, with a reduction from 2.7% to 1.5% over the 11-year period (P = 0.02). After adjusting for available confounding, RC patients in the non-IOG-compliant group were more likely to die at 30 days (OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.13–1.76) or 1 year (OR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.21–1.43) as compared to those in the IOG-compliant group. When analysing the incremental effect of hospital volume, each extra RC per year reduced the risk of death at 30 days and 1 year by 1.5% (OR 0.985, 95% CI: 0.977–0.992) and 1% (OR 0.990, 95% CI: 0.988–0.993), respectively. Although there was no significant difference in the odds of postoperative complications between the two groups (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.88–1.04), the risk of re-intervention was higher in the non-IOG-compliant group (OR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.12–1.30). It is noteworthy that, as observed for the risk of death, each extra RC decreased the risk of re-intervention (OR 0.99, 95% CI: 0.991–0.995). In conclusion, the findings by Afshar et al. [2] suggest that urologists have embraced centralisation of care for RC patients in England and this is likely to have positively affected the short-term outcomes.

Although, as acknowledged by the authors, many limitations related to the administrative nature of the HES dataset (e.g. missing data or coding errors) may have influenced the aforementioned results, other reports from the USA are consistent with this study. Specifically, it has been estimated that up to 40% of the decline in 30-day mortality after RC from 2000 to 2008 was attributable to centralisation of care [3]. In addition, other RC quality criteria, such as adequate pelvic lymph node dissection at the time of surgery, have improved after similar centralisation in the Netherlands between 2006 and 2012 [4]. As such, centralisation of RC offers many undisputable advantages, but given that travel distance to the treating facility may represent an important barrier for patients with MIBC seeking surgical care, concerns have been raised with regards to potential drawbacks, including increased time to definitive surgery. However, a recent report from the USA showed that, although centralisation of RC has led to a decrease overall access to the treating facilities, the process simultaneously improved access to high-volume centres [5]. It is noteworthy that hospital volume standards for centralisation of RC should not be set too high to avoid unreasonable travel burdens on patients with MIBC [6].

To summarise, centralisation of care is arguably the best way to go, to continue improving quality of RC and its associated short-term outcomes in the near future. Despite inherent limitations, virtually all available evidence, including the study by Afshar et al. [2], converge toward the general concept that RC patients should be managed by experienced urologists operating at expert centres with trained surgical teams.

Thomas Seisen 
Department of Urology, Pitie Salpetriere Hospital, Assistance Publique des Hopitaux de Paris, Paris Sorbonne University, Paris, France

 

Read the full article

 

References

 

1 Goossens-Laan CA, Gooiker GA, van Gijn W et al. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between hospital/surgeon volume and outcome for radical cystectomy: an update for the ongoing debate. Eur Urol 2011; 59: 775–83

 

2 Afshar M, Goodfellow H, Jackson-Spence F et al. Centralisation of radical cystectomies for bladder cancer in England, a decade on from the ‘Improving Outcomes Guidance’: the case for super centralisation. BJU Int 2018; 121: 217–24 166

 

 3 Finks JF, Osborne NH, Birkmeyer JD. Trends in hospital volume and operative mortality for high-risk surgery. N Engl J Med 2011; 364: 2128–37

 

4 Hermans TJ, Fransen van de Putte EE, Fossion LM et al. Variations in
pelvic lymph node dissection in invasive bladder cancer: a Dutch

 

nationwide population-based study during centralization of care. Urol
Oncol 2016;34:532. e7–532.e12

 

5 Casey MF, Wisnivesky J, Le VH et al. The relationship between centralization of care and geographic barriers to cystectomy for bladder cancer. Bladder Cancer 2016; 2: 319–27

 

6 Birkmeyer JD, Siewers AE, Marth NJ, Goodman DC. Regionalization of high-risk surgery and implications for patient travel times. JAMA 2003; 290: 2703–8

 

Article of the Week: Centralisation of RC for bladder cancer in England

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Every Week, the Editor-in-Chief selects an Article of the Week from the current issue of BJUI. The abstract is reproduced below and you can click on the button to read the full article, which is freely available to all readers for at least 30 days from the time of this post.

In addition to the article itself, there is an accompanying editorial written by a prominent member of the urological community. This blog is intended to provoke comment and discussion and we invite you to use the comment tools at the bottom of each post to join the conversation.

Finally, the third post under the Article of the Week heading on the homepage will consist of additional material or media. This week we feature a video discussing the paper.

If you only have time to read one article this week, it should be this one.

Centralisation of radical cystectomies for bladder cancer in England, a decade on from the ‘Improving Outcomes Guidance’: the case for super centralisation

Mehran Afshar*, Henry Goodfellow†, Francesca Jackson-Spence‡, Felicity Evison§, John Parkin§, Richard T. Bryan‡, Helen Parsons, Nicholas D. James§‡ and Prashant Patel§‡

 

*St George’s Hospital NHS Trust, London, UK, †The Royal Free London NHS Trust, London, UK, ‡University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK, §University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK, and Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
Read the full article

Abstract

Objective

To analyse the impact of centralisation of radical cystectomy (RC) provision for bladder cancer in England, on postoperative mortality, length of stay (LoS), complications and re-intervention rates, from implementation of centralisation from 2003 until 2014. In 2002, UK policymakers introduced the ‘Improving Outcomes Guidance’ (IOG) for urological cancers after a global cancer surgery commission identified substantial shortcomings in provision of care of RCs. One key recommendation was centralisation of RCs to high-output centres. No study has yet robustly analysed the changes since the introduction of the IOG, to assess a national healthcare system that has mature data on such institutional transformation.

Patients and Methods

RCs performed for bladder cancer in England between 2003/2004 and 2013/2014 were analysed from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data. Outcomes including 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year all-cause postoperative mortality; median LoS; complication and re-intervention rates, were calculated. Multivariable statistical analysis was undertaken to describe the relationship between each surgeon and the providers’ annual case volume and mortality.

Results

In all, 15 292 RCs were identified. The percentage of RCs performed in discordance with the IOG guidelines reduced from 65% to 12.4%, corresponding with an improvement in 30-day mortality from 2.7% to 1.5% (P = 0.024). Procedures adhering to the IOG guidelines had better 30-day mortality (2.1% vs 2.9%; P = 0.003) than those that did not, and better 1-year mortality (21.5% vs 25.6%; P < 0.001), LoS (14 vs 16 days; P < 0.001), and re- intervention rates (30.0% vs 33.6%; P < 0.001). Each single extra surgery per centre reduced the odds of death at 30 days by 1.5% (odds ratio [OR] 0.985, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.977–0.992) and 1% at 1 year (OR 0.990, 95% CI 0.988–0.993), and significantly reduced rates of re-intervention.

Conclusion

Centralisation has been implemented across England since the publication of the IOG guidelines in 2002. The improved outcomes shown, including that a single extra procedure per year per centre can significantly reduce mortality and re-intervention, may serve to offer healthcare planners an evidence base to propose new guidance for further optimisation of surgical provision, and hope for other healthcare systems that such widespread institutional change is achievable and positive.

Read more articles of the week

 

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